Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicted that the value of Bitcoin would fall below $40,000. Brandt is known for his application of Bayesian probability theory in market analysis.
Brandt’s methodology is based on modifying the probability of events as new data emerges. This method is the basis of Bayesian probability theory, which helps investors adjust their forecasts based on changing information.
What is the probability of Bitcoin falling below $40,000?
Brandt first started trading Bitcoin in 2016, initially believing there was a 50% chance that the cryptocurrency would reach $100,000. At the same time, I also believe that there is a possibility that it will fail.
But over time, Brandt’s view evolved, heavily influenced by his technical analysis tools.
For example, at the beginning of June, Brandt estimated a 50% probability of Bitcoin falling to $30,000, and a 50% probability of rising to $140,000. But his current projections have changed to the following:
– 65% probability of Bitcoin falling below $40,000.
– 20% chance that Bitcoin will reach $80,000.
– 15% probability that Bitcoin will reach $130,000 by September 2025.
US elections and their impact on crypto
Bernstein analyst Gautam Shogani explained that the upcoming US presidential election could have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices. According to Shogani, the winner – whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris – could significantly influence the trajectory of the cryptocurrency.
“If Trump wins, we expect Bitcoin to reach new highs, and if that happens by the fourth quarter, Bitcoin could reach the $80,000-90,000 range,” Shogani said. If Harris wins, Bitcoin could break the current support around $50,000 and test the $30,000-$40,000 range.’
This year, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $55,000 and $70,000, after peaking in March. Currently, it is trading around $56,510, down 1% over the past 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered predicted a rise of up to $150,000 for Bitcoin if Trump, who portrays himself as a pro-cryptocurrency candidate, is re-elected.
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